Tales of the Tape #6: Uma Musume - The Roguelike Revolution Hidden in Plain Sight
Welcome back to Tales of the Tape - this week, I analysed Jakob's passionate breakdown of Uma Musume Pretty Derby from the Two and a Half Gamers podcast.
If you've been following mobile gaming for any length of time, you're likely familiar with the fact that Japanese gacha games can be a bit opaque to Western audiences. But this one's different. This one is special.
I'm a big fan of CyGames and spent years playing Granblue Fantasy and Dragalia Lost (RIP little angel gone far too early *cry*), so I thought I understood their design philosophy. When I first heard "horse girls waifus", my immediate reaction was to mark it as a niche Japanese mobile game that prints money domestically but hardly goes anywhere globally. I was dead wrong.
After spending an hour listening to Jakob break down the mechanics with the enthusiasm of someone who just discovered something remarkable, and watching tons of videos and reading articles, I'm convinced we're looking at some of the most innovative roguelike design in years. The fact that it's wrapped in an anime horse racing package might be the only reason Western developers haven't already copied it.
This is the story of how a game about training horse-waifus became a case study in game design that the entire industry should be studying.
The Numbers That Demand Respect
Let's start with the reality check.
Uma Musume launched in February 2021 and immediately did $72 million in its first month. In Japan. Only Japan. It's been stable at $10+ million monthly ever since, with vent spikes hitting $30 million.
The game has 22m downloads globally, but here's the kicker: 95% of revenue still comes from Japan. The Western release is pulling maybe $100-300k monthly. This isn't a localization problem or a cultural barrier. This is a complexity wall that most Western players bounce off immediately.
Jakob mentions it took him a literal week of reading guides and watching explanation videos just to understand what he was doing. Most players see those stats screens and immediately uninstall. But for those who push through? They discover what Jakob calls "hands down the best roguelike game I've everplayed."
The Arcade Genesis Nobody Talks About
Here's where the story gets fascinating.
Uma Musume isn't some original concept dreamed up in a boardroom. It's a spiritual successor to Derby Owners Club, a Sega arcade game from the '90s where you trained actual horses between races.
The DNA is unmistakable: train your horse > manage stats > compete in races > repeat. But where the arcade version had you physically pressing buttons during races, Uma Musume went full auto-play for mobile. Where Derby Owners Club used real horses, Uma Musume created an entire mythology around anthropomorphic horse girls based on legendary Japanese racehorses.
This isn't just a gimmick. Every character is designed to the last detail to match their real-world counterpart. Girls with silver hair represent white horses. That single streak of white hair? It matches the marking on the original horse's head. The authenticity is obsessive.
What looked like random anime nonsense to Western eyes is actually a love letter to Japanese horseracing history. No wonder it resonates so deeply domestically.
The Mechanics That Actually Matter
Jakob's breakdown of the core loop reveals something interesting: Uma Musume has solved problems in roguelike design that most developers don't even know exist.
The basic premise sounds simple: train a horse girl for three years, compete in races, hopefully win championships. But the execution is layered with complexity.
First, there's the character specialization system. Each horse girl has completely different optimal strategies. Sakura is a sprinter who needs pure speed stacking. TM Opera excels at long distances and requires entirely different support cards, training regimens, and race selection. It's like having an elemental system on steroids.
Then there's the legacy mechanic that Jakob rightly identifies as revolutionary. Your previous runs don't just provide progression points or cosmetic rewards. They become "parents" that inspire your current character through random events, potentially granting abilities she could never learn otherwise.
Think about this: a character specialized for sprints can inherit long-distance skills from a previous run's legacy, opening up entirely new strategic possibilities. I've never seen a roguelike where past runs integrate so organically into current gameplay.
The friendship system with support cards adds another layer. These aren't just stat bonuses; they're potential skill teachers that appear randomly during training. You're essentially gambling on whether the right support character will show up to teach you the skill you need for your build.
Every decision carries weight. Every turn could be the difference between championship victory and career-ending injury. The randomness is directed but never guaranteed, creating genuine tension in what should be a simple training simulation.
The Monetization Inversion
Here's where Uma Musume reveals its true sophistication: the characters aren't the chase cards. The support cards are.
In most gacha games, you pull for the flashy new character and use whatever equipment you have lying around. Uma Musume flips this entirely. You can win championships with one-star horses if you have the right support cards. But without proper support cards, even the rarest characters are worthless.
This creates a monetization model focused on strategic depth rather than power creep. You're not buying stronger characters; you're buying more strategic options. It's the difference between selling you a bettersword and selling you a chess grandmaster's entire tactical library.
Jakob mentions there are six different gacha pools, including paid-only options that guarantee certain rarities. The complexity extends even to how you spend money.
The Small Giant Warning Shot
The most telling part of Jakob's analysis might be his discussion of Small Giant Games’ attempt to copy Uma Musume's formula. Small Giant, the masters of taking Japanese puzzle games andadapting them for Western audiences (Puzzle & Dragons became Empires & Puzzles), tried to recreate the magic.
They got the training mechanics right. They understood the basic loop. But they missed the cultural authenticity that makes Uma Musume special, and more importantly, they underestimated the complexity barrier that keeps most players engaged.
Their attempt is dead. Uma Musume is thriving.
The lesson? You can't just copy the mechanical systems and expect the same emotional engagement. The real horses, the historical authenticity, the cultural resonance in Japan - these aren't cosmetic choices. They're load-bearing elements of the design.
Why This Matters Beyond Horse Girls
Jakob's prediction feels inevitable: someone will take Uma Musume's mechanical innovations, simplify theonboarding, and reskin it for Western audiences. We're waiting for the "Golf Clash version of UmaMusume."
The core training loop, the legacy system, the support card strategy - these could work in any theme. Imagine training fighters, musicians, chefs, or even traditional RPG characters using these systems. The strategic depth would remain, but the cultural barriers would disappear.
Big clients are already asking Jakob to deconstruct the game for them. Everyone sees the revenue. Everyone recognizes the potential. But whether anyone can successfully extract the mechanical geniusfrom its cultural context remains to be seen.
The Complexity Paradox
Uma Musume presents gaming's oldest paradox in its purest form: depth versus accessibility. The game is simultaneously too complex for most Western players and too engaging for those who break through the complexity wall to ever leave.
Jakob spent a week learning to play and jokingly considers it one of his greatest gaming achievements. That's either a catastrophic onboarding failure or proof that the most rewarding experiences require genuine investment.
In an industry increasingly focused on reducing friction and maximizing retention metrics, Uma Musume support the opposite philosophy: make something so deep and rewarding that players will gladly climb the learning curve if you give them the tools.
Lessons for Modern Game Designers
Three principles emerge from Uma Musume's success that could apply far beyond mobile games:
Complexity can be a feature, not a bug. In a market flooded with casual experiences, genuine depthbecomes a competitive advantage for players willing to invest the time to master it.
Previous runs should matter mechanically, not just progressively. Most roguelikes treat previous attempts as learning experiences or progression grinds. Uma Musume makes them active participants infuture strategies.
Authenticity beats accessibility. Uma Musume's obsessive attention to real horse racing history creates emotional investment that transcends mechanical complexity. Players aren't just training characters; they're participating in a mythology.
As the industry continues its march toward simplified, retention-focused experiences, Uma Musume proves there's still appetite for games that respect their players' intelligence and reward genuine mastery.
The question isn't whether someone will successfully adapt these mechanics for Western audiences. The question is whether they'll have the courage to preserve the complexity that makes them worthwhile.
Sometimes the best games aren't the ones that remove all friction. Sometimes they're the ones that make the friction feel worthwhile (Think PoE vs Diablo nowadays)
On my end, I'll be watching to see which studio first successfully brings Uma Musume's rogue likerevolution to Western audiences.
Until next time,
Rachid